Fascinating thought experiment. Here's my extension of the consequences:
- China has an even more hideous time of it. Without the temptation of easy expansion into SE Asia and compulsion of the oil embargo, and encouraged by Soviet failures in Finland as Hitler was in our world, Japan doubles down on its invasion. Proxy war between Wang Jingwei's Nationalists and Mao's Communists escalates into 2nd Russo-Japanese war despite American attempt to mediate (with Chiang trying to do a De Gaulle from Hawaii).
- Both sides cast themselves as bearers of the anticolonial flame. Decolonisation in the rest of the world proceeds much more slowly as a result, but perhaps much more bloodily.
- E Europe not turning into hell on earth and no Russian occupation means postwar expulsion of Germans is minimal, probably only Danzig.
- Germany reconstituted along Weimar/BRD lines with pre-Anschluss borders. Economic basketcase at first due to Nazi mismanagement; huge British and especially US investment to shore it up as a sort-of democracy.
- Anglo-French alliance quickly cools postwar over the question of what to do about the Soviets - Britain (worried about India once more) and separately the US are interested in rearming Germany to at least threaten Operation Unthinkable, while France looks to strike a bargain with the Soviets to prevent a fourth Franco-German war.
- Despite their commitment in 1939 to its prewar borders, Britain and France are unwilling to extend the war into 1943 against a new enemy for Poland, especially with the French looking for Soviet friendship. The rump Poland that gets liberated (gaining Danzig but not Silesia/E Prussia) becomes a fanatical revanchist state but struggles for allies (Hungary?). As in our world, 1943-5 is probably a bad time to be a Polish(/Hungarian) Jew.
- As the only 3 powers with the resources and time to devote to the development of nuclear weapons, Britain, France and the US each do so independently in an atmosphere of intense mutual suspicion. The Anglo-French split, and antagonism between both and the US, dominates the politics of Europe, Africa and the Americas for the next decade or more. Canada and in particular Quebec becomes the staging ground for this three-way rivalry once the nuclar standoff has begun, with Montreal as the Berlin of this timeline's Cold War. The world comes close to Armageddon when the US seeks to station short-range 'interceptor' missiles in the Republic of Ireland, officially as a precaution against a British first strike.
Even before that, if the Allies had acted when Hitler reoccupied the Rhineland.
Stalin would have still moved on Eastern Europe/Germany? After that the rest of the counter factual collapses?
Fascinating thought experiment. Here's my extension of the consequences:
- China has an even more hideous time of it. Without the temptation of easy expansion into SE Asia and compulsion of the oil embargo, and encouraged by Soviet failures in Finland as Hitler was in our world, Japan doubles down on its invasion. Proxy war between Wang Jingwei's Nationalists and Mao's Communists escalates into 2nd Russo-Japanese war despite American attempt to mediate (with Chiang trying to do a De Gaulle from Hawaii).
- Both sides cast themselves as bearers of the anticolonial flame. Decolonisation in the rest of the world proceeds much more slowly as a result, but perhaps much more bloodily.
- E Europe not turning into hell on earth and no Russian occupation means postwar expulsion of Germans is minimal, probably only Danzig.
- Germany reconstituted along Weimar/BRD lines with pre-Anschluss borders. Economic basketcase at first due to Nazi mismanagement; huge British and especially US investment to shore it up as a sort-of democracy.
- Anglo-French alliance quickly cools postwar over the question of what to do about the Soviets - Britain (worried about India once more) and separately the US are interested in rearming Germany to at least threaten Operation Unthinkable, while France looks to strike a bargain with the Soviets to prevent a fourth Franco-German war.
- Despite their commitment in 1939 to its prewar borders, Britain and France are unwilling to extend the war into 1943 against a new enemy for Poland, especially with the French looking for Soviet friendship. The rump Poland that gets liberated (gaining Danzig but not Silesia/E Prussia) becomes a fanatical revanchist state but struggles for allies (Hungary?). As in our world, 1943-5 is probably a bad time to be a Polish(/Hungarian) Jew.
- As the only 3 powers with the resources and time to devote to the development of nuclear weapons, Britain, France and the US each do so independently in an atmosphere of intense mutual suspicion. The Anglo-French split, and antagonism between both and the US, dominates the politics of Europe, Africa and the Americas for the next decade or more. Canada and in particular Quebec becomes the staging ground for this three-way rivalry once the nuclar standoff has begun, with Montreal as the Berlin of this timeline's Cold War. The world comes close to Armageddon when the US seeks to station short-range 'interceptor' missiles in the Republic of Ireland, officially as a precaution against a British first strike.